Action A4 - Support to future prospect assessment with climate change senario analysis for targeted species
In this study habitat suitability maps were created (24 maps on final deliverable) using field data and other published and unpublished data (of Greek and Cypriot researchers) collected from action A1 and all the available geographical layers representing known environmental variables (such as altitude, slope, aspect, land cover, temperature, rainfall, Geology, Hydrology). Furthermore, landscape indices were calculated (from land cover map) for 6 different spatial scales (calculation radius 1000 to 6000 m) and use them as predicting environmental variables among other variables.
The base line scenario (representing the current conditions) used in the analysis was deriving from the Worldclim database (http://www.worldclim.org/). We also used the climate change scenarios produced from the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model HadCM3 (abbreviation for Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3) as they applied by method DELTA (http://www.ccafs-climate.org/data/) in order to predict future changes on habitat availability for the targeted species (96 maps with predictions produced using climate change scenarios were produced)
The results o ecological niche modelling (using MAXENT) analysis gave a good prediction of the current habitat availability for the selected species in Cyprus. The results were also discussed with the expert scientists from the Natural History Museum of Crete for their reliability (therefore the result maps should be used with the attached discussion). Thus, ecological niche modelling in combination with A1 field work completed the gaps and discontinuities on species knowledge.
A management study was produced, based on the results of actions A1 and A4 providing management proposals, discussion and methodologies for the selected species and their conservation.
All the results of the above analysis can be used as a tool for future conservation efforts and the methodology of the action (A4) can be applied for other important species of Cyprus as well. Resulting maps can be used to calculate important conservation status parameters (e.g. range, distribution, habitat for the species, favorable range, and future prospects of the species in the face of climate change). Therefore, methodology developed under action A4 can be used for the Reporting needs of Cyprus under article 17 of the Habitat directive.
Action A4-Habitat Suitability Maps (First Deliverable).pdf (File Size: 5830,4Kb)
Action A4-Support to future prospect assessment with climate change scenario analysis for targeted species (Second Deliverable).pdf (File Size: 3920,12Kb)